Mika J: Decision strategies based on forecasts of alternative Weather States

Summary: Optimal application of climatic probabilities, categorical and probability forecasts of two alternative weather states is demonstrated in a generalized decision situation allowing the choice between two adequate and one compromizing operations in connection with the content of the forecast and the elementary financial consequences. Criteria for choosing the optimum strategy expressed by parameters of the decision model are presented for the three types od weather information. This choice demands the solution of three inequations in case of the three possible strategies based on climatic information and only six inequations for the nine strategies applying categorical forecasts. In case of probabilistic forecasts it is demonstrated that the application of a compromizing operation improves the best strategy with the two adequate operations not for all possible ensembles of the economical parameters. Parametrized strategy specifications are illustrated in a meteorological example connected with macrosynoptic types defined by Péczely.